The first article in this series was Finding an Edge In Sports Betting. This article explains the tools needed to become a successful gambler. Although this is the most important aspect to beating the bookies and other players on betting exchanges, it is not the only requirement. The reason that many people who find the edge are not able to sustain long-term profits is because of their lack of discipline in betting.
If I refer to betting discipline, I mean the ability to deal with losing runs and place only bets when there is a good chance of winning. Many profitable gamblers have lost their fortunes due to fun or interest betting. Fun bets are any bet placed that does not meet the criteria of a ‘value wager’. This could be a wager you place on Monday night football even though you don’t have a strong interest in it, or it could be a wager you place on Wolverhampton’s race while you wait for Newmarket to open. These bets drain the profits from your main wagers. You are confident that you have an edge in the market with these bets.
A local casino could offer a special where each hour they tossed one coin and offered all present 11/10 on heads. This would give you an edge. You can win more money by backing heads every time you play, provided that Del Boy doesn’t supply the coin. Let’s suppose that the offer was limited to $100 per person. The profit you can expect for each bet is $5 (50% of 100*2.1 – $100). You will average $30 per day if your visit to the casino is just before the hour every day. This is your advantage, and you can use it to increase your overall profit. However, if you decide to take up residence at the casino, you can still play blackjack while you wait for your hourly wager. Let’s assume that the casino has a edge of 2% per hands and you play sixty hands per hour. This would mean that you would lose $12 every hour if you wager $10 per hand. You are not only waiting to place your hourly value bet, but you also have many smaller bets. These bets will more than compensate for the loss from the coin-toss bet 해외배팅.
While the example above might not be possible because casinos do not offer such incentives, most punters use a similar approach every day. Although they may visit the local bookies or simply watch the racing on TV, their general policy will be to place a wager on any horse that interests them in all races. Like the casino example, punters often don’t have enough discipline to wait until they place bets. You can place a bet on any race. But only if it is worth your time. You will lose all the effort you put into finding the right value selections if you don’t have the discipline to keep track of them.
If I place the true odds of a horse at 2.26 and decide to put it at 2.0 on Betfair then, unless my true chances change to account for any new information, no higher than that. It might seem like the horse is close enough if it is 2.02, but it’s not. If you intend to break it, then there’s no reason to have a minimum lay price or maximum back price. If you think 2.02 is close enough then 2.04 and 2.06 are close enough. How do you draw the line? You’ll be placing the horse at your true odds price before you know what. If you pay commission, you will lose.
It was possible to predict an event’s probability but lose long-term money because you couldn’t resist taking the bet even though it wasn’t worth the risk. While it’s okay to gamble for fun, I think there are worse things than losing money. But if your goal is to win consistently long-term, you need to have the ability to handle ‘fun’ bets as well as bets that don’t meet your price criteria. No matter if you only place bets when your price criteria is met or if you simply bet for fun, the goal should be to get the best possible price. That means opening as many account as you can and availing of any bookies free bets.
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